How to Read a Point Spread Guide

Understanding Point Spreads: The Basics

A point spread is a number that represents how many points a sportsbook believes one team will beat another team by in a game. The point spread exists to make betting on both sides of a game equally attractive to bettors. When you see a point spread listed for an NFL game, for example, it might show something like "Kansas City Chiefs -7 vs. Denver Broncos +7." This means the sportsbook predicts the Chiefs will win by 7 points. If you bet on the Chiefs, they need to win by more than 7 points for your bet to win. If you bet on the Broncos, they can lose by up to 7 points and your bet still wins.

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Point spreads are used across many sports including football, basketball, baseball, and hockey. Each sport has its own characteristics that affect how spreads are set. In the NFL and college football, spreads often range from 1 point to 20+ points depending on how uneven the matchup appears. In the NBA, spreads tend to be smaller, often ranging from 2 to 12 points because the higher scoring nature of basketball makes it harder for one team to dominate by large margins. Baseball spreads work differently and are typically expressed as money lines rather than point spreads, though some sportsbooks do offer point spreads for baseball games.

The minus sign (-) indicates the favorite—the team expected to win. The plus sign (+) indicates the underdog—the team expected to lose. A spread of -7 means the favorite is favored by 7 points, while a +7 means the underdog is expected to lose by 7 points. Understanding this basic notation is essential before moving forward with reading more complex spread information. The spread itself is just one piece of information that sportsbooks publish; other data like opening spreads, closing spreads, and line movements all provide additional context about how the game is being wagered on.

Practical Takeaway: Start by identifying the favorite (minus sign) and underdog (plus sign) in any point spread listing. Note the number attached—this tells you by how many points the favorite is expected to win. Practice reading several spreads from different sports to become comfortable with the notation before studying more complex concepts.

Reading Opening Lines Versus Closing Lines

When a sportsbook first releases a point spread for an upcoming game, that's called the opening line. The opening line reflects the sportsbook's initial assessment based on team strength, injuries, weather, and other factors known at that time. A few days or hours before a game, as more information becomes available and bettors place wagers, the spread may change. The final spread right before the game starts is called the closing line. Understanding the difference between these two is important because they tell different stories about how the game is being perceived.

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Line movement—the change from opening to closing—reveals valuable information. If a spread opens at Kansas City -7 and closes at Kansas City -10, the line moved in favor of Kansas City, suggesting that professional bettors and sharp money favored Kansas City more strongly than the sportsbook initially thought. Conversely, if a line opens at -7 and closes at -4, the line moved toward Denver, suggesting that either public money was coming in on Denver or the sportsbook wanted to attract more bets on Denver to balance their action. Sportsbooks care about balancing the amount of money wagered on each side so they can make money through the "vigorish" or "vig"—the commission they take on bets.

The magnitude of line movement matters. A 1-point move is relatively small and common. A 3-point move is significant and usually indicates substantial new information or betting patterns. A 5+ point move is very notable and often suggests major news such as a star player being ruled out due to injury, unexpected weather changes, or very lopsided betting patterns. Some sportsbooks will restrict betting or close markets entirely if they suspect they don't have enough information to set an accurate line, particularly if important injury news breaks very late.

Different sportsbooks may show different opening and closing lines. This is normal and creates what's called "line shopping" opportunities. A bettor might find Kansas City at -7 at one sportsbook and -6.5 at another. While this seems like a small difference, it can be significant over many bets. Professional bettors spend considerable time comparing lines across multiple sportsbooks to find the most favorable numbers. Casual bettors should understand that seeing slightly different numbers at different books is standard practice in the industry.

Practical Takeaway: When examining a point spread, try to note both the opening line and closing line if that information is available. Track which direction the line moved and by how much. Large moves often indicate new information about the game—check recent sports news to understand why the movement occurred. Compare the same game across multiple sportsbooks to see if significant line differences exist.

Decoding The Numbers: Favorites, Underdogs, and Spreads

The numerical value of a point spread represents the magnitude of the perceived advantage. A spread of -3 means the favorite is expected to win by 3 points. A spread of -10 means the favorite is expected to win by 10 points. Larger spreads indicate larger perceived differences in team strength. In college football, spreads can exceed 40 points in matchups between top programs and much weaker opponents. In the NFL, spreads rarely exceed 20 points because the league has more competitive balance. The NBA typically sees spreads in the 5-15 point range for most games, though these can vary based on team strength and home court advantage.

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The concept of "covering the spread" is central to understanding point spread betting. If you bet on the favorite at -7, that team must win by 8 or more points for your bet to win. A 7-point win is a "push," and your money is returned. If you bet on the underdog at +7, that team can lose by up to 6 points and you still win. A 7-point loss is a push. If the favorite wins by exactly the spread amount, it's a push. For example, if the spread is -3 and the favorite wins by exactly 3, no one wins or loses—money is returned.

Half-point spreads exist to eliminate pushes. A spread of -6.5 means the favorite must win by 7 or more, and the underdog can lose by 6 or less. Half-points are common in modern sportsbooks and exist specifically to prevent pushes. However, some older sportsbooks or certain markets may still use whole numbers only. When reading spreads, pay careful attention to whether a half-point exists, as this changes the exact winning and losing conditions.

The odds or juice associated with a spread indicates how much you need to bet to win a certain amount. A common format is -110, which means you need to bet $110 to win $100. Some books offer -105 on spreads, which is slightly better for bettors, or -120, which is worse. The juice varies by sportsbook and can vary even for the same game at different locations. Lower juice is always better for bettors from a mathematical perspective, though this is a relatively small factor compared to predicting games accurately.

Practical Takeaway: Create a simple chart showing how a -7 spread plays out. Write down scenarios: favorite wins by 10 (bet wins), favorite wins by 7 (push), favorite wins by 5 (bet loses), underdog loses by 3 (if you bet underdog, you win). Practice converting these scenarios for different spread numbers until the math becomes automatic. Check whether your sportsbook uses half-points, as this affects your calculations.

Analyzing Context: Injuries, Weather, and Home Field Advantage

Point spreads reflect many factors beyond just team quality. One of the most significant is home field advantage, which varies by sport. In the NFL, home field advantage is typically worth 2-3 points. This means that if two equally strong teams played each other, the home team would be favored by 2-3 points. In college football, home field advantage can be worth 3-4 points or more, particularly at schools with particularly loud stadiums or tradition-rich programs. In the NBA, home court advantage is generally worth 2-3 points. Understanding this baseline helps you read spreads more intelligently—if you see a spread larger than home field advantage would explain, the difference in team strength is significant.

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